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Melbourne Cup 2022 horses: Form guide, tips and odds from Simon O’Donnell

Melbourne Cup 2022 horses: Form guide, tips and odds from Simon O’Donnell

Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O’DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer.

Deauville Legend has been priced as the deserved favourite to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup – the race that stops a nation.

And while it is clearly the class horse of the race, the result is far from a forgone conclusion.

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Race tactics will play a major part in deciding the finishing order of the 2022 event, and what we see in the first 200m should give a fair indication of which jockey will be saluting as they go past the post.

The favourite could very well be knocked out of contention early if the Melbourne Cup plays out as I expect it to, with a much slower pace expected up front.

Hopefully this comprehensive form guide helps you pick a winner.

1. GOLD TRIP (barrier 14)

6yo horse

Weight: 57.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 15: 1-4-4

Last 6: x33529

Win range: 2200m

Earnings: $1,514,914

Odds: 13 / 4 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Super run in the Caulfield Cup, has elite form over 2400m in Europe. Seems to be finding his Aussie legs this preparation. Has plenty of weight to carry, but on his day if he can run the two miles he’s a genuine chance.

2. DUAIS (barrier 10)

5yo mare

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Edward Cummings

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Career: 23: 7-4-1

Last 6: 7×0688

Win range: 1300-2400m

Earnings: $2,887,765

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: To me has seemed a little flat throughout her prep so far, or possibly is looking for these longer journeys. Her lead-up runs have not been ideal through the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup. Seemed to be racing a little flat, but if she can bring her A game and stay the 3200m her best form puts her in it.

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (barrier 24)

8yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 30: 9-1-5

Last 6: 1×1343

Win range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $2,421,401

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Was very ordinary in the Melbourne Cup last year but has since picked his form back up with a Sydney Cup victory, and a bold finish in the Caulfield Cup. If he handles the pressure and the day better than last year, he’s a genuine top-10 chance.

4. MONTEFILIA (barrier 11)

5yo mare

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: Jason Collett

Career: 22: 6-1-5

Last 6: 18×434

Win range: 1400-2400m

Earnings: $2,756525

Odds: 12 / 3.90 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Hit the line very strongly in the Caulfield Cup and gave every indication she is searching for a longer journey. Is a class act and has the breeding either side to run this sort of distance. Brings strong build-up form into the race and is one of the genuine chances.

5. NUMERIAN (barrier 7)

7yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 30: 5-8-4

Last 6: 211225

Win range: 1408-2200m

Earnings: $1,514,573

Odds: 71 / 17 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Loomed to win the Caulfield Cup but looked to fade on his run. On that evidence alone I can’t see him running 3200m. I believe the trip will bring him undone and he is better suited around the 2000m mark to see his best.

6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (barrier 18)

6yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford

Jockey: William Buick

Career: 17: 7-3-4

Last 6: 203112

Win range: 2012-2787m

Earnings: $410,620

Odds: 11 / 3.70 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: One of the overseas raiders. Is a good traveller and brings winning competitive form to our shores. By all reports, and watching his vision, he is tough, he is hard, and he will genuinely make his presence felt.

Verry Elleegant storms to Melbourne Cup victory

7. CAMORRA (barrier 17)

6yo gelding

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 17: 4-2-4

Last 6: 7×5518

Win range: 1628-2816m

Earnings: $294,998

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Form prior to his last run has been impressive. The better the ground it seems the better he goes, so a firmer track on Tuesday should give him his best chance. Have a small query because of his poor showing last time out, but bringing his A game he should stay two miles, and a genuine top-10 finish wouldn’t surprise.

8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (barrier 9)

4yo gelding

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: James Ferguson

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 7: 3-3-0

Last 6: x12121

Win range: 2012-2615m

Earnings: $556,167

Odds: 3.60 / 2 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: A rightful favourite for the Melbourne Cup. Brings a strong winning and staying profile to the race. Is carrying 3.5kg more than any other three-year-old from Europe that has won the Melbourne Cup, so he is weighted to be a very good horse. Whether his seven-race experience is enough to season him and have him ready to win a Melbourne Cup, only the race will tell us. But he’s a genuine chance on everything he’s done during the English summer.

9. STOCKMAN (barrier 9)

6yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Joseph Pride

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 36: 8-7-3

Last 6: 964418

Win range: 1300-2600m

Earnings: $1,343,890

Odds: 29 / 7.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Has struggled any time he’s gone to race at elite level, albeit has a Group 1 placing the Tancred last autumn. Won two starts back over 2600m, and then expecting him to run a strong mile, but I’m not sure he has the class to greet the judge first in a Melbourne Cup.

10. VOW AND DECLARE (barrier 4)

7yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 27: 4-3-4

Last 6: 0x5356

Win range: 1800-3200m

Earnings: $6,035,880

Odds: 21 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: The 2019 winner who looks to be going as good as he was then. Hit the line solidly in the Caulfield Cup with some late interference. Obviously with race track and distance experience here, and going as well as he is, he has put himself in the picture again to be competitive in the 2022 version of the race.

Vow and Declare wins Melbourne Cup

11. YOUNG WERTHER (barrier 21)

5yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 14: 1-4-3

Last 6: 28×430

Win range: 1500m

Earnings: $1,149,900

Odds: 34 / 9 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Gives every indication he will run a journey like this, but has had no luck with the barrier draw. Doesn’t often win. A solid performance against outstanding company in the Cox Plate will have topped him off to give it his best over two miles.

12. HOO YA MAL (barrier 15)

4yo horse

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 9: 2-3-3

Last 6: 322318

Win range: 1408-2816m

Earnings: $905,868

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Runner-up in an Epsom derby is an excellent form for a Melbourne Cup. It is such a tough course you would think it should hold him in good stead to run the two miles here. Has won over 2800m in Europe which gives us every indication that two miles is going to be within his armory. Will be trained to the minute by Gai Waterhouse, expect him to be positive from barrier 15, and could be in the race for a long way.

Manzoice claims Victoria Derby with storming finish

13. SERPENTINE (barrier 23)

6yo gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 14: 2-1-0

Last 6: x00902

Win range: 2012-2420m

Earnings: $730,004

Odds: 71 / 17 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: An English Derby winner. A bold front-running ride on Saturday gained him entry into the race. Expect him again to go forward over the 2400m, and by super staying stallion Galileo, expect him to enjoy the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup, and be there or thereabouts for a top-10 finish. I’m just not sure if he has the class to win it.

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (barrier 13)

5yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Moor

Career: 21: 7-1-2

Last 6: 13×070

Win range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $621,142

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Adelaide Cup winner, Sydney Cup place getter. Form leading into this has been only fair, but a genuine stayer who will appreciate running over the two miles. My question mark is whether he has the class to worry the top contenders.

I Wish I Win conquers thrilling Golden Eagle

15. GRAND PROMENADE (barrier 1)

7yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 24: 8-4-2

Last 6: x7x594

Win range: 1700-2600m

Earnings: $1,222,400

Odds: 81 / 21 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Solid effort in the Moonee Valley Cup last start over 2500m. Has a good record at Flemington, winning here three times, but his one try at 3200m brought him undone. Under Tuesday’s pressure I’m not sure he has the class to win the race, but it wouldn’t surprise if he could finish somewhere between five and 10 at the end of the 3200m.

16. ARAPAHO (barrier 19)

6yo gelding

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 26: 6-5-3

Last 6: 712382

Win range: 1300-2350m

Earnings: $673,900

Odds: 81 / 21 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Beaten by Stockman in an open handicap last start over 2600m. This preparation has been solid, but I’m not sure it has been solid enough to have the form or ability to win a Melbourne Cup.

17. EMISSARY (barrier 3)

6yo gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Michael Moroney

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Career: 15: 4-2-3

Last 6: 5×1581

Win range: 1700-2400m

Earnings: $545,583

Odds: 29 / 8 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Winner of the Geelong Cup last start, which is always great form to bring into a Melbourne Cup. Well-bred European import now in Australian hands, looked an absolute picture at Geelong and ran accordingly. Seems to be genuinely finding his mojo for the Australian way of racing, and could figure.

18. LUNAR FLARE (barrier 12)

7yo mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 33: 8-4-6

Last 6: x46612

Win range: 1600-2510m

Earnings: $1,653,555

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Comes into this racing after winning the Bart Cummings two starts back. Is a genuine staying prospect, but former Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente. This race will deliver far greater challenges than the Bart Cummings and a second in the Moonee Valley Cup, but expect her to run – as usual – a very honest and solid race.

19. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (barrier 16)

6yo gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 24: 9-6-1

Last 6: x92117

Win range: 1500-2500m

Earnings: $1,403,865

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Favourite for the Melbourne Cup last start, and frankly I thought disappointed when put into the race at the right time. That puts the question mark in my mind as to his ability to now run the two miles. His trainers are in superb form, and all reports are the horse has continued to thrive since his disappointing Caulfield run. The question mark being the 3200m, but he will be fit and ready to run to his best on Tuesday.

20. TRALEE ROSE

6yo mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Career: 19: 6-4-2

Last 6: 19×700

Win range: 1700-2800m

Earnings: $907,725

Odds: 126 / 29 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Returns to the Melbourne Cup in 2022 in far lesser form than her previous attempt. Form leading in can only be described as ordinary. They will have pushed on to take their place in the Melbourne Cup, but from what she’s produced on track, rather than what we read on paper, I can’t see her being a genuine chance of winning.

21. POINT NEPEAN (barrier 20)

5yo horse

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 9: 4-1-0

Last 6: 111×90

Win range: 2400-2800m

Earnings: $468,515

Odds: 61 / 15 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: (Owner) Lloyd Williams going for his eighth Melbourne Cup – this son of Camelot won the Andrew Ramsden three starts back to win his ticket into the Melbourne Cup. I thought his Herbert Power run was only poor. No weight on his back, but with a poor draw I think he really has a task ahead of him to give Lloyd his eighth Cup on Tuesday.

22. HIGH EMOCEAN (barrier 8)

6yo mare

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Career: 22: 7-5-3

Last 6: x34161

Win range: 1600-2500m

Earnings: $705,635

Odds: 41 / 10 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Was strong over the 2400m to win the Bendigo Cup last start. I’m not sure that’s the form good enough to win a Melbourne Cup. But of course we need to be hesitant in questioning the capabilities of the Maher-Eustace training partnership.

23. INTERPRETATION (barrier 6)

5yo horse

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 10: 3-0-1

Last 6: 4×6536

Win range: 2012-2816m

Earnings: $242,850

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Another of the Maher-Eustace runners, has been thereabouts this preparation without putting his hoof on the till. The drop in weight will help, and a good barrier will also assist. As much as he needs to improve from his last three runs significantly, 3200m may just bring the best out of him, and top-10 finish would not surprise.

2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

24. REALM OF FLOWERS (barrier 5)

6yo mare

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Career: 23: 5-4-3

Last 6: 06×033

Win range: 1512-2800m

Earnings: $616,110

Odds: 12 / 3.90 (courtesy of Bet365 as of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: A solid run in the Metropolitan last start. She’s won a Sandown Cup, was honest in the Sydney Cup over 3200m. Was one of the favourites going into her previous Melbourne Cup, so the ability is there. But I’m sure she is going as well now as she has been in previous preparations.

SIMON O’DONNELL’S MELBOURNE CUP TIP

1st Montefilia 2nd Vow And Declare 3rd Deauville Legend 4th Without A Fight

How the race will play out: I think Knights Order will lead coming from barrier 4, and the other Waterhouse runner Hoo Ya Mal will also go forward. It’s not going to be as strong a two miles as we’ve seen previously.

It will be interesting to see with some of the more fancied runners that are wide, whether they take the punt that the pace isn’t going to be on, and they go forward, or whether they try to sneak in down the back. But without pace on it’s going to be hard to make ground over the last couple of furlongs.

Tactically that is going to be a really interesting part of the race to watch. Serpentine was a runaway leader in his Epson Derby win, and led again on Saturday. I expect him to go forward, but I don’t see the genuine six or seven on-pace horses who are going to make it a strongly run Cup.

I think this year will be more of a sit-and-sprint, which will help horses with that little bit of brilliance – which I think Montefilia has. I don’t think there is going to be as much pressure as there has been in previous years.

The winner will come from the front half of the field, which will play into Deauville Legend‘s hands that he can take a spot midfield and not be run off his feet.

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